ÎÚÑ»´«Ã½

While the 18-lane behemoth that is the 401 is perpetually packed, the 407, which runs parallel to it, resorted to a promotional campaign earlier this year to entice drivers to take it.Ìý

Despite this, the Ford administration never considered buying the 407 before announcing the 401 tunnel proposal, a senior government source at Queen’s Park told the Star.

The reason being that if population growth trends in Ontario hold, all of the 400-series highways in the Greater ÎÚÑ»´«Ã½ and Hamilton Area will hit or exceed capacity within the decade, according to the province’s traffic modelling.

“The 407 will be at or over capacity in 10 years anyway,” said the source, speaking privately on background to discuss internal deliberations.

Ford said as much on Wednesday in unveiling the tunnel plan.

“We can’t just sit by and let this happen,” he told reporters, noting Ontario’s population increased by 800,000 last year.

The premier has made no secret that he is not a fan of the tolls motorists pay on 407, and has says former Progressive Conservative premier Mike Harris made a wrong turn in 1999 when he decided to privatize the highway to raise money to lower his government’s deficit.

But tolls can be tools to fight congestion, said Matti Siemiatycki, professor of geography and planning and director of the infrastructure institute at the University of ÎÚÑ»´«Ã½.

“Tolls encourage people to use other modes of transportation,” he said. “Or to carpool or to go during times when tolls are lower. That’s what we’ve seen in other regions.”

Had the 407 not been privatized in a 99-year lease for $3.1 billion, the initial cost of building the highway would have long ago been paid off and tolls eliminated.

More recent estimates of 407’s value have come in at around $30 billion or more.

Arguments in favour of buying the 407 over building the tunnel hinge on the former seeming like it would be significantly cheaper. But the province has not released a cost estimate for the dig and experts say they don’t have enough information yet to make their own calculations.Ìý

Siemiatycki’s best guess, at this stage, is “mega billions.”

“We don’t know the length, we don’t know how many lanes we’re talking about here, this is really early days,” he said. “The premier also talked about building transit under there, so that’s another huge cost.” 

The Star reached out to 407 ETR, the company that operates the highway, to ask whether it would sell to the province, and if so, for how much. It declined to answer.

“407 ETR is a private road operator and we’re not involved in provincial transportation policy discussions beyond our responsibilities under the concession agreement,” said Christina Basil, 407 ETR’s vice-president of communications and government relations. “Shareholder transactions are commercially sensitive, and as such, we are unable to comment on valuations.”

Either way, tunnel or 407 acquisition, you can’t defeat congestion for good with more lanes, transit experts say. This is explained by the concept of induced demand. More space for cars encourages more drivers. If you build it, they will come.

University of ÎÚÑ»´«Ã½ professor Steven Farber, a transportation geographer and spatial analyst, has a more sophisticated solution to gridlock than either proposal.Ìý

Instead, Ontario needs to develop a “holistic strategy” for tolling the 400-series highways, he said.Ìý 

Single-occupancy vehicles are the largest contributor to congestion, he said. A “modest investment” in high-occupancy vehicle lanes could reduce their concentration.Ìý

“I would also restrict truck use of the 401 during peak periods to encourage logistics companies to pay for 407 use out of pocket,” said Farber.

Ontarians should give up on the idea that roadways will become less congested, he added. Instead, efforts should go toward making other forms of transportation more accessible.Ìý

“The best we can do is provide more people opportunities to use other modes so that they don’t have to be part of the congestion,” he said. “But that’s easy for me. I live about 5 km from my work and there are good transit options. We need to create those conditions for more people in more parts of the city.”

With files from Rob Ferguson